Monday, November 1, 2004

Election Prediction

I don't usually do political here, but I think this week of all weeks I can be excused.

Like another of my friends, I'll take a crack at predicting the election. Only I think it's going to be Bush. My reasoning for this is somewhat indirect. I'm basing it on the fact that I'm usually too optimistic. I'd really like Kerry to win, and I find myself thinking he could do it. But see, since I think he “could”, that means he's probably trailing in reality. Most polls seem to support that supposition, although margin of error and the electoral system mean that it's all up in the air.

I'd love, love, love to be wrong. I think Kerry will be an indifferent president, will make about the same decisions Bush would in Iraq (we're there to stay, basically), and won't be able to influence the economy that much (presidents get too much blame and too much credit there). Basically, I'm guessing we're looking at another Carter in Kerry. But I want the civil-liberty-supressing, short-sighted adventures we've got running the show right now out. And if nothing else, I want a Democrat to do the nominating of the next set of Supreme Court nominees.

Anyway, hope I'm wrong. To that end, at nearly 33 years of age I voted in this election. That make it my first vote ever (absentee because of the baby).


  1. First vote- I'm surprised. Congrats though- it is better to participate and b e disappointed than to not participate at all.

  2. Disappointed about my guess or the outcome? :)

    As to why I never did, it's because I realized that my vote literally did not matter. Living in Minnesota, no matter which way I voted, it wouldn't have an effect. It's probably true this time as well (living in Virginia), but I disagree with the current administration so much that I just have to do something.

  3. Craig,

    You don't have to worry. The redskins lost yesterday which means the incumbent will lose.

  4. Yeah, I saw that. Every year since 1937, or something, eh?

    Too bad correlation != causation.

  5. yeah, but one can always hope.

  6. Wake up you people - your vote DOES matter!

  7. I agree that it matters in the sense of creating an atmosphere of civic responsibility. And this year, it might even matter in terms of who gets elected president, although generally it does not.

  8. Well, I'm moving to Canada. Want to come?


  9. Actually, while I think that this election has far-reaching, negative impacts that will last at least 20 years, I was thinking the other day that it's nice that we managed not to have another civil war. I.e. I'm glad that our differences aren't so bad that we're willing to kill each other over them.

    Also, I want to be here in two years to say, "I told you so." ;)

  10. You thought "we're looking at another Carter in Kerry" and you still wanted him to win?

    Let's recap: double digit unemployment, double digit inflation, interest rates at about 18%, decaying cities, rampant crime, gas lines around the block, hostages in Iran..

    Yeah those Carter years were a hoot. Let's have some more of that!

  11. The Carter analogy was meant more to convey that I thought Kerry would be a good guy who would be remembered as a mediocre president - more successful in what he did after the White House than in it. Since my personal opinion is that that Bush will be remembered as a disasterous president, the choice seemed clean.

    Your argument from an economic basis resonates with me - but I happen to think that a President who is pursuing a costly war, who is unwilling to compromise on much, who spends wildly on other things, and who has Congress behind him will not be good for the economy.

    Kerry, as a Democrat, would also tend to spend too much, but at least he'd be willing to raise taxes to pay for it, rather than borrowing heavily, endangering the economy. Plus, he'd be in opposition with a Republican legislature, which tends to produce more moderate economic policy.

    So, no, I wasn't advocating a return to the 70s. :) I'm no economist, but those are my views, based on the world as I understand it. You have yours, which is cool by me.